WASHINGTON, Oct 22 — Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a slim lead of 46% to 43% over former Republican President Donald Trump, amid a disheartened electorate expressing concerns that the nation is veering off course, according to a recent Ipsos poll.
Harris’s edge in this six-day survey, concluding on Monday, is comparable to her previous lead of 45% to 42% over Trump from the prior week, indicating an exceptionally close race with only two weeks remaining before the November 5 election.
Both polls illustrate that Harris’s advantage is within the margin of error, with the latest figures revealing her leading by merely 2 percentage points when unrounded.
The new poll indicates that voters possess a bleak outlook regarding the economy and immigration, generally favoring Trump’s positions on these matters. Approximately 70% of registered voters stated that their cost of living was misaligned, while 60% believed the economy was moving in the wrong direction, and 65% expressed dissatisfaction with current immigration policies.
Voters ranked the economy and immigration, along with threats to democracy, as the foremost issues facing the nation. When asked which candidate had the superior strategy regarding these matters, Trump was favored on the economy by 46% to 38% and on immigration by 48% to 35%.
Immigration emerged as the predominant concern among respondents regarding the priorities for the next president’s first 100 days, with 35% selecting it as the top issue. In contrast, 11% highlighted income inequality, while 10% mentioned healthcare and taxes.
However, Trump performed poorly on inquiries concerning which candidate was more adept at tackling political extremism and threats to democracy, with Harris leading 42% to 35%. She also surpassed Trump on abortion and healthcare policies.
Even if Harris maintains her lead through November 5, it may not suffice for an electoral victory. National surveys, including those by Ipsos, provide crucial insights into public sentiment, but the Electoral College’s state-by-state results ultimately determine the winner. Seven battleground states are anticipated to be pivotal. Trump won the 2016 election despite losing the national popular vote to Democrat Hillary Clinton by 2 points.
Polling suggests that both Harris and Trump are closely matched in these key states. Additionally, the poll indicates that voters—particularly Democrats—may be more motivated for this election compared to the November 2020 presidential race, in which Joe Biden triumphed over Trump.
About 79% of registered voters, including 87% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans, expressed absolute certainty about casting their votes in the presidential election. This figure represents an increase from 74% in an Ipsos survey conducted October 23-27, 2020, when 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans confirmed their intention to vote.
The latest poll carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Harris entered the race in July after Biden suspended his reelection campaign following a subpar debate performance against Trump in June. At that time, Trump was perceived as the frontrunner, partly due to his reputation for economic prowess after a prolonged period of high inflation under the Biden administration, which has since eased.
Given the tight competition, both candidates’ endeavors to ensure their supporters turn out to vote will likely be decisive. In the November 2020 election, only two-thirds of U.S. adults participated, marking the highest turnout in over a century, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center.
Approximately one-third of registered voters are Democrats, another third are Republicans, and the remainder are independents or supporters of third parties, based on estimates from Pew Research.
The most recent Ipsos poll surveyed 4,129 U.S. adults online across the nation, including 3,481 registered voters. Among the 3,307 respondents deemed most likely to vote on Election Day, Harris held a 3-percentage-point advantage over Trump, 48% to 45%.
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