As it anticipates a potential retaliatory strike from Israel, Iran has ordered its armed forces to prepare for war while also seeking to avoid conflict, having observed the devastation faced by its allies in Lebanon and Gaza.
Four Iranian officials revealed in anonymous phone interviews that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has instructed the military to develop various plans for responding to any Israeli attack. The scale of Iran’s retaliation will depend on the extent of the damage caused by Israeli strikes.
If Israel responds to recent missile fire from Iran with significant damage and casualties, Iran is likely to retaliate. However, if the strikes are limited to a few military sites, Iran may choose not to respond.
The officials indicated that Khamenei has mandated a definitive response if Israel targets oil and energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, or senior officials for assassination.
Possible retaliatory measures being considered include launching up to 1,000 ballistic missiles, escalating attacks by Iranian proxy groups in the region, and disrupting global energy supplies and shipping routes through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Although Iran publicly claims it does not seek war, significant military strikes from Israel would present a dilemma for its leaders, who are determined not to appear weak, especially following Israel’s targeted assassinations of several leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which receive Iranian support.
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