Experts predict a pivotal shift in regional energy dynamics as Turkey’s role in Syria’s energy future becomes increasingly crucial following the anticipated collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s 61-year Baathist regime. With Syria’s oil and gas resources largely outside the control of Damascus, the fall of Assad is set to end reliance on Iran for fuel supplies, opening new opportunities for Turkey.
Kate Dourian, a fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, emphasizes that Iran’s ability to provide oil to Syria will end with Assad’s regime. This leaves a potential gap in energy supplies that Turkey could fill, leveraging its influence over anti-Assad groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Dourian suggests that Turkey’s involvement in Syria’s reconstruction and future leadership could include supplying fuel, shaping both Syria’s energy landscape and political direction.
Years of conflict have decimated Syria’s oil production, which plummeted from 383,000 barrels per day before the 2011 uprising to just 93,000 bpd in 2022. This decline, exacerbated by the loss of key oil fields to groups like ISIS and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has left Syria increasingly dependent on Iranian energy. Turkish energy companies now have a chance to revive oil and gas production, contributing to the country’s reconstruction. However, this hinges on a stable government and an inclusive political settlement, which could take time to materialize.
Syria’s significance in energy geopolitics lies not just in its own resources, but its strategic location along major east-west and north-south energy corridors. The Arab Natural Gas Pipeline, which would carry Egyptian gas to Turkey and eventually Europe via Syria, highlights the country’s potential role in regional energy cooperation.
As the regime shifts, Turkish researcher Haydar Oruc predicts that Turkey will continue supporting Syria, particularly in energy cooperation. Once Syria’s resources are liberated from terrorist control, Turkey is ready to assist in rebuilding the country’s energy infrastructure, marking a new chapter of collaboration in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond.
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