Ahead of Election Day, the Trump campaign predicted that abortion ballot measures in battleground states might ultimately benefit him, and early results seem to support this. Despite abortion rights traditionally favoring Democrats, many voters in key states such as Arizona, Florida, and Nevada backed both abortion rights and Trump. Measures supporting abortion rights passed in seven states, with notable support in Florida, Arizona, and Nevada, despite Florida’s measure falling short of the 60% threshold.
Trump’s political director, James Blair, suggested that these ballot measures could help Republicans by allowing voters to express their views on abortion while still making an independent choice on who should be president. This strategy appears to have worked, as polling shows a significant portion of voters who supported abortion rights also voted for Trump.
While Democrats had hoped these measures would boost Vice President Kamala Harris, the results indicate otherwise. Abortion rights measures garnered more support than Harris in several states, including Colorado, Maryland, and New York, where she won, and even in Missouri and Montana, where Trump won.
In some states, like South Dakota and Nebraska, abortion rights measures failed, but Trump still won those areas. Nebraska, however, saw a split with Harris narrowly winning one district. As Senate races in Arizona and Nevada remain tight, Democrats have a slight edge, but abortion rights continue to be a significant topic of discussion.
Despite Trump’s promises to leave abortion decisions to the states, his critics remain skeptical. They argue that his administration could still take actions to restrict abortion, such as enforcing the Comstock Act or revoking approval of abortion drugs like mifepristone. With Republicans regaining control of Congress, further restrictions could be possible.
This election cycle marks the first time abortion ballot measures haven’t uniformly favored abortion rights since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. While abortion rights had been a winning issue for Democrats in recent elections, Trump’s shift to a centrist position on abortion, advocating for states’ rights to decide, and his running mate JD Vance’s moderated stance, may have played a role in this shift.
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