Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen H. Hicks recently addressed the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) on the changing nature of warfare, drawing lessons from the ongoing war in Ukraine and its broader implications for global security. She emphasized that the future of warfare is evolving due to advances in both old and new technologies, with a focus on how these shifts are influencing military strategy, especially in the context of U.S.-China relations.
Hicks began by acknowledging the significant role of RUSI and other independent research centers, especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which has reshaped European security and has broader ramifications for the Indo-Pacific region. The Pentagon has sharpened its focus on strategic competition with China, particularly in terms of deterrence and defense.
Hicks explained that while war’s nature remains violent and unpredictable, the character of warfare is changing. She outlined four critical insights drawn from the war in Ukraine:
Intelligence as an Advantage: High-quality intelligence remains a key factor in preparing for war. Early warning of Russia’s buildup in Ukraine allowed countries to prepare and act, providing a critical advantage.
Operational Integration Over Technology: Advanced military technology alone is not enough. Russia’s early failures in the war highlighted the importance of operational readiness and integration. Ukraine’s training and experience with Western allies played a crucial role in its defense.
Protracted Warfare: Ukraine has shown how a smaller, determined force can resist a larger aggressor for an extended period. This underscores the importance of societal willpower and innovation in defense.
The Power of Alliances: The strength of global alliances, including NATO, AUKUS, and others, has proven essential in resisting aggression. The coordination and interoperability of allied forces, along with economic and diplomatic tools, provide a significant strategic advantage.
Hicks also linked these lessons to potential future conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, particularly regarding China. She noted that Beijing is likely watching the Russia-Ukraine war closely and may draw lessons, especially regarding protracted conflict and the importance of alliances.
Regarding technological trends, Hicks highlighted the growing role of commercial technologies, such as small drones and satellites, in modern warfare. These tools, combined with traditional systems, are contributing to a new concept of “precise mass” in warfare, which the U.S. Department of Defense is actively embracing through initiatives like Replicator, which aims to field thousands of autonomous systems.
However, Hicks stressed that technology alone will not determine the outcome of future wars. The quality of military personnel, the integration of existing capabilities with new technologies, and the ability to innovate at scale will be key. The U.S. military and its allies, including the U.K., are leading the way in this integration.
She concluded by reminding policymakers of two important lessons: first, appeasement only emboldens aggressors, as history has shown; second, democratic nations, though tested, can prevail over autocracies due to their resilience, economic power, and commitment to freedom.
Hicks reaffirmed that while military capabilities are important, the true strength of democracies lies in their open societies, which foster innovation and collaboration. These enduring advantages are key to outlasting strategic competitors in the long run.
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