Will Russia end Ukraine war by 2025?

As February 2024 marks the two-year milestone since Russia initiated special military operations in Ukraine, divergent interpretations of the conflict continue to shape global discourse and geopolitical dynamics.

Western Perceptions vs. Russian Justifications:

From a Western perspective, Russia’s actions are viewed through the lens of aggressive imperialism, posing a significant threat to European security. Concerns persist that failure to deter Russian expansionism could result in the escalation of conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders. Conversely, Russia frames its intervention as a response to the alleged victimization of ethnic Russians in the Donbas region, attributing their plight to what Moscow describes as a “neo-Nazi regime” installed by Western powers in Kyiv. Russia justifies its military involvement as necessary to protect its citizens, culminating in the annexation of Donbas territory.

French Provocation and NATO Dynamics:

Recent statements by French President Emmanuel Macron, suggesting the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine, highlight broader tensions within the Western alliance. Macron’s proposal faced public rejection from several NATO member states, underscoring divisions within the alliance. The historical animosity between France and Russia, rooted in events like Napoleon’s ill-fated invasion, adds complexity to Macron’s stance. Geopolitical considerations, rather than unified Western consensus, shape responses to the conflict.

Putin’s Response and Geopolitical Realities:

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent state-of-the-nation address provided insight into Moscow’s strategic thinking. Putin warned against foreign intervention in Russia, referencing historical precedents and accusing the West of hypocrisy in its approach to dialogue and military engagement. This underscores Russia’s commitment to defending its interests while navigating geopolitical challenges.

Uncertainties Surrounding Western Support and Ukrainian Capabilities:

Doubts persist over the continuity of Western military aid to Ukraine, compounded by internal political dynamics in the United States. The effectiveness of aid in bolstering Ukrainian defenses remains questionable, as evidenced by limited military successes. Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership face significant obstacles, limiting its options for external support.

Prospects for Peace Amidst Political Transitions:

The upcoming presidential elections in both Russia and the United States could shape the trajectory of the conflict. Speculation regarding Putin’s reelection and the potential return of former President Donald Trump raise questions about future peace negotiations. A ceasefire followed by diplomatic dialogue may offer a path towards resolution, contingent upon political developments and shifting power dynamics.


As the conflict enters its third year, the interplay of geopolitical interests, domestic politics, and military capabilities continues to influence outcomes. The potential for peace hinges on effective diplomacy, internal stability, and the willingness of key actors to engage in meaningful dialogue. The trajectory of the war in Ukraine remains uncertain, with significant implications for regional stability and international relations.