2025 Climate Change Policy Outlook

The climate change conversation in Pakistan often feels like a game of buzzwords and lofty ideals, with little real action behind it. Terms like “green transition” and “electric vehicles for climate change” are tossed around, but these initiatives rarely go beyond self-congratulatory rhetoric and leave tangible results in the dust. The core issue lies in the government’s inability to translate talk into real policy and action grounded in Pakistan’s unique circumstances.

Agriculture, water, and livelihoods should be at the heart of Pakistan’s climate response. Agriculture is not only the backbone of the economy but also a key source of food security. Unfortunately, it’s highly vulnerable to climate impacts such as floods and droughts. The days available for cropping are shrinking, and patterns are changing due to climate shifts. Meanwhile, water availability—which is essential for both agriculture and daily life—is increasingly under threat.

Yet, the government continues to focus more on mitigation rather than adaptation, which is the true need of the hour. Take Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), for example. These policies lean heavily towards mitigation, despite the fact that adaptation should be the top priority given Pakistan’s vulnerabilities and negligible contribution to global climate change.

One glaring example of misguided policy is the switch to CNG for transportation. While it seemed like a good idea to conserve foreign reserves, the plan backfired. Gas reserves dwindled, forcing Pakistan to import LNG, raising costs, and failing to fulfill the promises of lower transportation expenses. Meanwhile, businesses and consumers who had invested heavily in CNG infrastructure were left with losses as the government abandoned the initiative.

Similarly, the push for solar energy has had unintended consequences. In a bid to promote solar power, the government overlooked agreements with independent power producers (IPPs), resulting in revenue losses and increased electricity prices. The poor and middle class, who cannot afford to install solar panels, are left shouldering the higher costs of electricity.

The latest trend is the rush to promote electric vehicles (EVs) without considering the country’s realities. Pakistan’s electricity infrastructure is already stretched thin, and nearly a quarter of the population still lacks reliable access to electricity. Moreover, over half of the nation’s electricity is still generated from fossil fuels, making the shift to EVs potentially counterproductive.

If Pakistan doesn’t learn from past mistakes, it risks repeating them with EVs. Experts warn that without careful planning, the country could be facing another policy disaster like the CNG fiasco.

To tackle climate change effectively, Pakistan must adopt a more realistic and grounded approach. First, it needs a clear policy framework tailored to its unique challenges and resources. Hydropower, coal, and nuclear energy should be considered as part of the solution. Second, adaptation should be prioritized, with a strong focus on protecting agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods.

Moreover, Pakistan should involve local expertise and institutions, such as universities, rather than relying on donor-driven consultants. Once this national climate agenda is in place, Pakistan should engage with the international donor community for support in implementing it.

This doesn’t mean abandoning mitigation efforts. A balanced approach is needed, one that acknowledges Pakistan’s limitations and opportunities while setting a course for a greener, more resilient future. By learning from past failures and focusing on what matters most—adaptation—Pakistan can move forward into 2025 with a plan that is both practical and sustainable.
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