As Americans headed to the polls on Tuesday, global investors were anxious about the outcome of a highly contentious U.S. election that has significantly impacted financial markets in recent months. The election is seen as one of the most unprecedented in modern history, with potentially far-reaching consequences for tax and trade policies depending on whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris emerges victorious.
The election results could create global market turbulence, affecting U.S. debt, the strength of the dollar, and various key industries. Polls indicated a close race between the former president and the current vice president, and with control of Congress also at stake, investors were particularly concerned about the possibility of an unclear or disputed outcome that could lead to increased market volatility.
As voting results began to come in Tuesday evening, investors were closely monitoring a few key counties that might provide early insights into the election outcome. However, many critical battleground states were not expected to have significant results until late in the night.
“This is the most important election I’ve witnessed in my career,” remarked Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, who has over 40 years of experience in investment management. He predicted that the results would create a stark divide in market reactions, with distinct scenarios unfolding based on whether Trump or Harris wins.
The focus on the election came after a strong stock rally, pushing the S&P 500 to record highs in 2024, thanks to a robust economy, solid corporate earnings, and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. On Tuesday morning, the S&P 500 was up 0.8%, with various assets tied to Trump’s poll performance showing gains. Additionally, measures of demand for protection against significant price fluctuations in the currency market surged to their highest levels since the November 2016 election.
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