Hurricane Alert: Heavy Rain and Mudslides Expected in Cuba
A hurricane is set to form in the Caribbean, bringing heavy rain and mudslides to Cuba before it heads into the Gulf of Mexico, according to the US National Weather Service. Tropical Storm Rafael is projected to strengthen into a hurricane on Monday as it nears Jamaica, potentially affecting the Florida Keys and southeastern US later this week, as reported by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Both Jamaica and Cuba could experience up to 230mm (9 inches) of rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding. In response, the Cuban government has issued a Hurricane Watch for Havana and several eastern provinces, including Pinar del Rio and Matanzas.
The storm threatens to exacerbate Cuba’s ongoing energy crisis, which has led to prolonged power outages due to aging infrastructure and insufficient fuel for oil-powered plants. Cuba is still recovering from Hurricane Oscar, which hit the eastern region of the island two weeks ago with winds reaching 130km/h (80mph).
As of early Monday, the new weather system was classified as a tropical depression and located approximately 310km (196 miles) south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 55km/h (35mph) and moving north at 15km/h (9mph), according to the NHC. A tropical storm is classified when sustained winds reach 63km/h (39mph), while hurricane status is achieved at 119km/h (74mph).
The storm is expected to pass near Jamaica late Monday and could reach hurricane strength before making landfall in western Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Forecasts indicate that the hurricane’s core will move west of Florida, and unfavorable atmospheric conditions are likely to prevent Rafael from becoming a significant threat as it approaches the US coast in the Gulf of Mexico.
This hurricane season has been notably active, with 10 hurricanes already recorded, including two major ones—Helene and Milton—which caused extensive damage in Florida and North Carolina, resulting in over 200 fatalities.
According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University, only seven seasons have recorded 11 Atlantic hurricanes by the first week of November. Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist in Miami and author of the Eye on the Tropics blog, emphasized that having a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in November is rare, with only four such instances documented since 1966.
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