Israel’s upcoming Oct. 27 general election is shaping up as a close contest between opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Recent opinion polls generally place Eisenkot’s Yashar party slightly ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud, with Yashar projected to win around 22–25 seats, while Likud is estimated to secure 20–21.
However, becoming the largest party does not automatically mean forming the government. Since Israel uses a parliamentary system, a party or political bloc needs the support of at least 61 of the 120 Knesset members to establish a government.
Recent surveys show that Netanyahu’s coalition remains below this majority. A Maariv poll published on Sept. 8 gave Netanyahu’s bloc 47 seats, while opposition parties were projected to win 57. A new alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha was expected to gain four seats. If it joins the opposition, the anti-Netanyahu camp could reach the crucial 61-seat threshold.
Other polls have produced less decisive results. A Channel 13 survey showed both Netanyahu’s bloc and the Jewish opposition with 53 seats each, while Arab parties were projected to win 14. Meanwhile, a KAN poll placed Netanyahu’s camp at 52 seats and Eisenkot’s side at 51, with smaller parties holding the remaining seats.
Eisenkot also performs better than Netanyahu in surveys asking voters who they prefer as prime minister. One Maariv poll showed Eisenkot leading Netanyahu 48% to 39%, while Channel 13 recorded a 47% to 37% advantage. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also narrowly led Netanyahu in the Maariv survey.
Smaller parties could ultimately determine the election’s outcome. Parties such as Amcha Yisrael and Religious Zionism have fluctuated around the electoral threshold, meaning their success or failure to enter the Knesset could significantly alter the distribution of seats. If right-wing parties fail to cross the threshold, many of their votes could go unrepresented, weakening Netanyahu’s chances of forming a coalition.
The Hendel-Zelekha alliance could be equally important for the opposition. Although it is currently projected to win four seats, its decision about which bloc to support could determine whether Eisenkot’s camp reaches a parliamentary majority.
Overall, the polls indicate that Eisenkot currently has an advantage over Netanyahu, but the final result will depend heavily on smaller parties, electoral thresholds and coalition negotiations after the election.
NEWS DESK
PRESS UPDATE