Oil prices rise as Israel-Iran tensions escalate.

Oil prices are poised for a weekly rise on Friday due to reports of Israel preparing a significant attack on Iran, though the prospect of new Gaza cease-fire talks is limiting further increases.

As of 2:55 p.m. local time (1155 GMT) on Friday, the international benchmark Brent crude was trading at $74.55 per barrel, up about 2.3% from last week’s closing price of $72.87. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American benchmark, rose approximately 2.7% to $70.62 per barrel, compared to last week’s closing of $68.78.

Tensions between Israel and Iran escalated following an Iranian missile strike on Israel on October 1. Israeli state television KAN reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant discussed the timing and method of Israel’s retaliation, with media outlets also indicating that U.S. intelligence has obtained leaked documents detailing Israel’s plans for an attack on Iran.

The news follows U.S. President Joe Biden’s statement that he is aware of how and when Israel plans to strike Iran, while Tehran has warned of a “decisive” response. Fears of an Israeli attack on Iran, which could widen the conflict and disrupt oil supply routes, have contributed to rising oil prices.

Additionally, oil prices surged earlier in the week after the Israeli military announced the elimination of key Hezbollah leaders in an airstrike on southern Beirut. The Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that Hisham Safieddine, Head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, and Ali Hussein Hazima, Commander of Hezbollah’s Intelligence Headquarters, were killed in a strike carried out about three weeks prior.

According to unnamed Israeli officials cited by KAN, Israel is nearing a decision on an attack against Iran, marking a tense period in the nation’s history. Speculation suggests the strikes could target oil or nuclear facilities, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict, although reports indicate that Israel intends to focus on military targets.

At the same time, the potential for new Gaza cease-fire negotiations is constraining price increases. Market participants are closely monitoring discussions, with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdelrahman Al Thani announcing that U.S. and Israeli delegations will travel to Doha to seek progress in the negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has approved a delegation to visit Qatar next Sunday for this purpose.
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