The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has reduced its policy rate by 250 basis points to 15%, effective November 5, citing a decline in inflation and a positive economic outlook. This adjustment comes as inflation slowed more than anticipated, nearing the central bank’s medium-term target in October.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) noted a decrease in inflationary pressures, supported by stable food prices, favorable global oil prices, and limited changes in domestic tariffs. Although inflation volatility is likely to persist, the MPC expects stabilization within the 5–7% target range in the near future.
The SBP pointed to several recent developments, including the International Monetary Fund’s approval of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility, which has enhanced economic confidence and attracted planned external investments. Improved investor sentiment and lower government bond yields also contributed to the MPC’s decision.
Additionally, the committee observed a positive trend in Pakistan’s real economy, with growth seen in sectors such as textiles, food, and automobiles. A better-than-expected Kharif crop output in agriculture has further bolstered economic optimism. As inflation containment progresses, the SBP anticipates real GDP growth for FY25 to fall between 2.5% and 3.5%.
On the external side, Pakistan’s current account showed a surplus for the second month in a row in September, driven by strong remittances and exports. Despite a rise in imports, SBP foreign reserves reached $11.2 billion by late October, with expectations of further increases in the upcoming months.
The SBP’s revised inflation forecast for FY25 has been adjusted downward to below the previous estimate of 11.5%–13.5%, reflecting a decrease in core inflation and improvements in domestic supply. However, risks remain, including tensions in the Middle East and potential fiscal adjustments.
NEWS DESK
PRESS UPDATE