Advisers to Donald Trump have been discussing potential strategies to end the war in Ukraine, which could involve conceding large parts of the country to Russia for the long term, according to their statements and interviews with those close to the US president-elect. The plans, suggested by key advisers including Trump’s incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, share common elements, notably removing Ukraine’s NATO membership from consideration.
The proposed strategy includes pressuring both Moscow and Kyiv to engage in negotiations, using a mix of incentives and penalties. This could involve halting military aid to Ukraine unless it agrees to negotiate, but increasing support if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses talks.
Trump had repeatedly promised during his campaign to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, though he has not yet outlined a specific plan. Experts and former national security officials express skepticism about Trump’s ability to meet this ambitious pledge, given the conflict’s complexity. However, the proposals from his advisers offer a potential framework for his peace plan.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, facing manpower shortages and significant territorial losses, has shown a willingness to consider negotiations, though he remains determined to seek NATO membership. Still, he has acknowledged the need for diplomatic solutions to reclaim occupied territories. However, analysts suggest that Putin may be reluctant to engage in talks, as he continues to make territorial gains and may feel he has the upper hand.
Eugene Rumer, a former top US intelligence analyst, noted that Putin is likely to wait, making further territorial advances before considering negotiations. He also pointed out that Putin’s conditions for peace include Ukraine abandoning its NATO aspirations and ceding control of four provinces that Russia claims, which Ukraine has rejected.
As of last week, Trump had not assembled a formal working group to develop a comprehensive peace plan. Instead, various advisers have publicly floated ideas and discussed them informally with Trump. Ultimately, any peace agreement will likely depend on direct negotiations between Trump, Putin, and Zelenskiy. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on individual proposals, while Trump’s spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, emphasized that Trump’s focus would be on restoring peace and rebuilding American strength globally.
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