Carney Nears Majority as Key By-Elections Shape Power Balance

By-Elections Could Strengthen Liberal Control

Mark Carney is close to securing a narrow majority in Canada’s parliament as voters cast ballots in three important by-elections on Monday.

Currently, the Liberal Party holds 171 out of 343 seats in the House of Commons—just one seat short of a majority. Therefore, even one additional win could give the party full control and allow it to pass laws without relying on opposition support.

Key Races in Toronto and Montreal

Two of the by-elections are taking place in Toronto—Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale—where the Liberals are widely expected to win. These seats were previously held by senior figures, including former defence minister Bill Blair and former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland.

Meanwhile, the third race in Terrebonne, a suburb near Montreal, remains highly competitive. Both the Liberal Party and the Bloc Québécois are seen as strong contenders in this constituency.

Court Decision Adds Significance

The Terrebonne contest has gained extra attention after Canada’s top court overturned last year’s election result. The previous Liberal victory, decided by just one vote, was invalidated due to a clerical error involving a postal ballot managed by Elections Canada.

Defections Strengthen Liberal Position

In addition to the by-elections, Carney has reinforced his position through recent political defections. Five opposition members—four Conservatives and one from the New Democratic Party—have joined the Liberals.

Although party switching is not unusual in Canadian politics, experts say the recent trend stands out. A political analyst from the University of Toronto described it as “extraordinary,” noting that Carney has expanded the party’s appeal across ideological lines.

Concerns Over Ideological Unity

However, this broader support has raised concerns about internal consistency. Critics argue that the Liberal Party may now include members with differing views, which could make decision-making more complex.

Carney recently defended Marilyn Gladu, a former Conservative who joined the Liberals. While she holds socially conservative views, she has stated that she will support the party’s policies. Carney also emphasized that the party’s core values remain unchanged.

Strong Poll Lead Supports Stability

At the same time, opinion polls show the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 10 to 15 points. This strong public support further strengthens Carney’s position and could delay the next federal election until 2029.
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