The United States and the United Arab Emirates have engaged in discussions about the possibility of lifting sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, provided he distances himself from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Hezbollah, according to sources familiar with the talks. These conversations, which gained momentum in recent months, were partly driven by the looming expiration of broad US sanctions on Syria by December 20, 2024, and Israel’s ongoing efforts to counter Iran’s regional influence.
The recent advance of anti-Assad rebels into Aleppo, marking the largest offensive in years, has highlighted the vulnerability of Assad’s alliance with Iran, which the US and UAE hope to exploit. The rebel advance is seen as a potential weakening of Assad’s position, a situation that the UAE and US are aiming to leverage in their efforts to separate Assad from Iran. However, if Assad turns to Iranian support for a counteroffensive, it could complicate efforts to weaken their alliance.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, visited Syria recently to show support for Assad, while UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan spoke with Assad over the weekend to discuss the situation. The UAE has long sought to rehabilitate Assad in the Arab world and reduce Syria’s reliance on Iran, with the hope of rebuilding business ties with Syria, but US sanctions have hindered these efforts.
The discussions also come amid Israel’s efforts to weaken Iran and its allies in Syria, with recent strikes targeting Hezbollah’s weapons routes. Sources indicate that the US and UAE are considering offering sanctions relief to Assad as part of a broader “carrot-and-stick” approach to fracture Syria’s alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, especially as Hezbollah has pulled back fighters to focus on southern Lebanon.
The Caesar Act, which sanctions Syrian business sectors and anyone dealing with Syria, has been a major tool in the US strategy, and its expiration later this month has led to discussions about whether to allow it to sunset. The UAE had previously proposed this idea, especially after the 2023 earthquake in Syria, which created a humanitarian crisis. Some US officials and Syrian interlocutors have considered the possibility of allowing these sanctions to expire without renewal, in exchange for Assad’s cooperation in distancing himself from Iran.
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