US Election: Ukraine’s preferred candidate?

Next week, global attention will turn to the US as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris face off in the tight Nov. 5 election. According to recent polls, Trump holds a slight lead over Harris, sparking worldwide interest in how the outcome could shape international relations.

Among the most invested in this decision is Ukraine, now nearly 1,000 days into its conflict with Russia. Since the war began on Feb. 24, 2022, the US has provided more than $64.1 billion in military support and nearly $3.8 billion in humanitarian aid, making it Ukraine’s main ally.

As the Biden administration’s term nears its end, questions arise over Washington’s future support for Kyiv and which candidate might better serve Ukraine’s interests.

Kyiv’s Official Stance

So far, Kyiv has aimed to balance relations with both Democratic and Republican candidates to maintain bipartisan support. During a September visit to the US, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his “victory plan” to both Harris and Trump, outlining goals like NATO membership for Ukraine, reclaiming territories, and ensuring post-conflict stability.

While Kyiv officially seeks a neutral stance, there have been moments of tension. Zelenskyy, for example, pushed back on Trump’s recent comments suggesting he could swiftly end the war. In an interview, Zelenskyy expressed skepticism, saying Trump “doesn’t really know how to stop the war.” Zelenskyy also criticized Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, whose proposed solution would involve Ukraine conceding territory to Russia, a plan Zelenskyy fears could set a dangerous global precedent.

In response, Vance remarked during a campaign rally that Zelenskyy should show more gratitude to US taxpayers.

Kyiv on Hold

As the election looms, Ukraine is weighing various possible outcomes. Simon Schlegel, a senior analyst on Ukraine with the International Crisis Group, noted that Kyiv appears to be postponing major decisions until after the election.

While some Ukrainians worry about a potential Trump victory, others hold cautious hope, speculating that Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy might still benefit Ukraine. Schlegel suggested that if Trump’s attempts to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin were to fail, his frustration might lead him to bolster support for Ukraine. However, Schlegel cautioned that these are optimistic assumptions and might not reflect Trump’s actual policy.

On the other hand, Harris’s stance, though likely to follow Biden’s supportive but cautious approach, also leaves room for uncertainty. Schlegel noted that some Ukrainians, frustrated by the current strategy, are cautiously considering Trump’s potential for a more assertive approach, while recognizing the risks of a reduced US commitment under his leadership.
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